I do not claim to have any financial credentials or to be an investment guru. Indeed, the only advice I am giving you, other than to to read my disclaimers and other boring legalisms, is to do some research yourself and use the information you find to balance what advisors tell you, as I did. If I had slavishly followed the advice of the financial gurus in my family, one who had over $2 million invested in the stock market and one who made his living as a financial advisor, I would have lost most of what I had managed to save and invest over a lifetime, as guru #1 did and as the clients of guru #2 did.
For years it had been obvious to me that stocks and houses were way overvalued and that there was widespread corruption in the finance, real estate, and mortgage businesses. These bubbles were ready to burst. So about four years ago we moved our stock market investments to safer havens, sold our home in California, and moved to Oregon. It took a couple more years — you can’t really time that sort of thing — before those bubbles burst and the economy took a fall, from which we may not recover during our lifetime.
Here are some threats I see to my money and yours in 2010:
I anticipated the stock market rally in 2009, as hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars were injected into the economy, but I also expected that it would become apparent by year’s end that there wouldn’t be enough money to keep the rally going. Wrong. It’s clear that our leaders are willing to keep the Fed’s printing presses going as long as necessary. But can bailout money alone keep people from noticing that stocks and homes and commercial property are overvalued? Can it keep declining businesses from laying off employees or declaring bankruptcy? Can it save insolvent banks that are not “too big to fail” from failing? Can flooding the world in dollars have any other result than to make them worth less and less–until they are worthless?
If you’re like me, you’re looking to stash whatever you have managed to accumulate in a safe place until the economic storm blows over. So, with the provisos that (1) “safe” is a relative term, and (2) the “storm” may get a lot worse before it blows over, I’m sharing the results of my research to find “ten safe places to put money in 2010″:
1. Treasuries. You give the US government money and they give you a piece of paper. On a future “maturity” date, you exchange the paper for your principal plus interest. If you’re afraid to put your money in the stock market, or even bank CDs, and you don’t want to keep a lot of cash at home, then you might consider buying Treasuries or investing in funds (e.g., Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VMPXX), Fidelity U.S. Treasury Money Market Fund (FDLXX), etc.) that buy Treasuries. In exchange for the relative safety of investing in government bonds, you accept minimal interest. But keep in mind, if there is enough inflation, it could rob you of not only your interest but a chunk of your principal, as well. When I invest in Treasuries, I prefer the funds, because I can get in and out of them quickly. Also, if your 401(k) or other such investment managers offer Treasury funds, that could be a good place to park money during stock market bubbles or declines, if you’re not ready to withdraw from the tax shelter. Since foreign buyers are greatly reducing their purchases of Treasuries and I anticipate high inflation, I have moved most of what I had in Treasuries to TIPS.
2. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Again, you give the US government money and they give you a piece of paper. I’ll let the Treasury Department take it from there: “TIPS provide protection against inflation. The principal of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.” If you think there is going to be inflation, and you want the security of a US government investment, then TIPS could be for you. As with Treasuries, you can invest in funds (e.g., Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (VIPSX), Fidelity Inflation-Protected Bond Fund (FINPX), etc.) instead of buying directly from the government. And as with Treasuries, I prefer the funds. Vanguard is my favorite, because they invest only in TIPS, no other assets. This is my favorite parking place for money in 401(k)s during stock market bubbles or declines, if I’m not ready to withdraw from the tax shelter. Since I anticipate high inflation and I like to diversify my investments, I will leave some money in TIPS funds. But since the government (under)calculates inflation using its flawed CPI, I won’t be fully protected.
3. Permanent Portfolio. This fund (PRPFX) is designed to “preserve and increase the real long-term purchasing power of each shareholder’s investment, regardless of economic climate,” hence the word “permanent.” The fund has six categories of investment: gold, silver, Swiss Franc assets (including Swiss bonds), real estate and natural resource stocks, aggressive growth stocks, Treasuries and other USD assets. As you can see, this fund contributes to your diversification by its design. You won’t make a lot of money, but you might just be able to protect the money you invest. As I look at those investments, I see obvious problems with the real estate and stocks, but the Treasuries are moderating losses and the precious metals (PMs) should go a long way towards balancing the downside. The Swiss holdings should be a plus, but their economy is contaminated by mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and financial derivatives. Still, the fund made gains in 2009.
4. Gold stock. Although I expect the stock market to decline again in 2010, Treasuries and Inflation-Protected Securities are so boring that I put some of my 401(k) money into the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX). It was up in 2009, but I would have done even better outside the tax shelter, investing in a gold stock, such as Royal Gold (RGLD). How can I include gold stocks, which have been up and down in recent years, among “safe” investments? Well, fiat currencies come and go, but gold has outlasted them all. I am willing to bet a few of my dollars that PM stocks will be worth more than the USDs I invest in them by the end of 2010. That said, I prefer the actual metals to the stocks.
5. Precious metals (PMs). I have bought gold and silver coins for years, and their value has gone up quite a bit over that time. Although PMs declined from their 2009 highs at year’s end, I fully expect them to increase significantly in value during 2010. They remain one of the best historic hedges against inflation and a necessary part of a sound diversification strategy. The precarious position of the US as the world’s leading debtor nation, together with the recent injection of hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars into the economy, with the prospect of perhaps a trillion more to come this year, persuades me that the US dollar could drastically fall in value before year’s end. Looking at PMs from that perspective suggests that as high as they are, they are still relatively cheap to buy now, if you can find anyone selling them. Gold and silver Eagles have been in short supply, and right now I favor the latter, because I think they are undervalued compared to gold, and because they would be more practical for everyday use than the more expensive Gold Eagles if USDs were not accepted.
6. Foreign currencies. Prior to the 2008 economic decline, the US dollar (USD) had been steadily losing value against the Euro and several other foreign currencies. Since the economies of other countries have been contaminated by some of the same mortgage-backed securities, financial derivatives, and other bad paper that has brought the US to the brink of economic collapse, their currencies have been a bit shaky of late, and there has been a flight to the USD, probably because of its historic strength rather than its current condition. Late in 2009 I cashed in my Euro holdings (through Everbank CDs and money market accounts), but I may buy Euros again if that currency begins to gain strength against the dollar, and I am looking at the Norwegian krone as another possible hedge against the USD.
7. Banks. You won’t earn much interest on your CDs, savings, and checking accounts, but at least they’ll be relatively safe against anything but inflation. The FDIC insures deposits up to $250,000, per depositor, per bank, with no expiration date (now that the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 has made previous temporary increases to this insurance level permanent). It’s probably going to be useful to have some extra cash on hand the next year or two, to take advantage of bargains. I will be tempted to buy more property if prices fall sufficiently. (Or perhaps even if they dont: see item #10, below.) There is some risk of keeping a lot of money in the bank. If lots of banks were to close (140 closed in 2009) and one of them held your deposits, the FDIC might run out of funds. It could take awhile to sort that out and give you access to your money. Diversify, giving consideration to well-run, solvent credit unions.
8. Cash. If a disaster, natural or otherwise, were to make your bank accounts inaccessible and your credit cards useless, you’d want to have some hard cash on hand. Stuff happens, so it seems prudent to keep enough cash to purchase food and other necessities, at inflated prices, for at least a couple of months.
9. Supplies of food and other necessities. I live in the Pacific Northwest, where it is predicted that a 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia fault could occur at any time. So whether or not there is an economic (or other man-made) disaster in 2010, there is a potential natural disaster in my region for which the prudent should prepare. Chances are, you are also at risk from natural disasters, wherever you live. If you haven’t already invested some money in stocks of food (with long shelf lives), water (and water purification devices), first aid supplies (and medicines you routinely use), cooking equipment, cold weather or rain clothing, tents, sleeping bags, cots, and other emergency supplies, then by all means do so ASAP. You would be wise to store extra supplies for use in trading. During emergencies, such supplies become more valuable than money. (See “Fifty items you’ll need in extended emergencies” for more information.)
10. Home in small town or a small farm. Life in big cities can be difficult and even dangerous if one is not careful, but in normal times savvy residents know how to stay out of trouble. In the next year or two, people living in big cities may find that trouble comes looking for them. If the economy takes a turn for the worse, and food and other necessities cost more, and more people are unemployed, and governments cut back on social and protective services–well, if you’ve ever thought you might like to live in a small town or run a small farm, this might be the year to move away from the city. Simply put, it may be safer to live in smaller communities than big cities, and you may have better access to produce, meat, and dairy products if you are closer to where they originate. You can’t get any closer than your own back yard. From an “investment” standpoint, there is no more important investment than your health and safety. And during a depression or other calamity, homes in small towns and small farms might not only maintain their value better than property in big cities and suburbs but might substantially increase in value.
So there you have ‘em, my top ten picks for (relatively) safe places to put money in 2010, as the recession slides further towards a depression. It might not be the end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI), but it is likely to be a year in which some of the worst aspects of life in far corners of the world become familiar aspects of life in America. (Click here for more truthalyzer posts about the economy and here for a post about dispossessed and migrating Americans, reminiscent of the Great Depression.”)
UPDATE, April 9, 2009: TIME suggests “10 Things to Do With Your Money Right Now”:
1. Hold more cash. (“In bank CDs or money market funds.”)
2. Find something to cut. (Like “dry cleaning, dinners out, domestic help.”)
3. Pay down debt. (Credit card debt, in particular.)
4. Make sure your money is safe. (In a bank. Below FDIC limits.)
5. Diversify internationally. (They recommend “foreign stocks and bonds.”)
6. Refinance your mortgage.
7. Don’t panic.
8. Check your credit card rate. (If it’s up, ask them to lower it.)
9. Check your most recent bank or brokerage statement for accuracy.
10. Be a lender. (Lend money to family and friends at “market rate.”)
The title of the article was promising, but the contents are disappointing, to say the least. “Don’t panic”? (Always good advice. Worked well in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.) “Check your bank statements”? (Never would have thought of that.) Cut costs, especially “domestic help.” (I laid off all my maids and butlers. Did you?) Invest in foreign stocks and bonds? (Seems risky to buy anybody’s stocks and bonds right now, but maybe I’m just being panicky.)
UPDATE, July, 2010: The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which became law on July 21, 2010, made permanent the previous temporary increases in insurance to $250,000 per depositor, per bank. Item 7, above, was revised to reflect this change.
NOTE: Much of the above was drawn from previously published posts and asides on the main page.
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