The end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI) does not imply the actual end of the world, as in the Earth scoured of life forms or pulverized back to stardust. Rather, it suggests the beginning of a new chapter in human civilization in which the “lifestyle” of the developed world, together with all its appurtenances, is swept aside in a great storm of change. As Jan Lundberg puts it, “The world as we ‘know’ it will end but we’ll get to know the world as it really is a lot better.”  I do expect our species to adapt, as it has many times over the eons, but it will not be easy. Elders may still fantasize sipping mocha latte cappuccinos in shiny SUV’s cruising expressways long after those objects have decomposed and even the words describing them have vanished from the common vocabulary.

The big picture

The mainstream media spews out a flurry of snapshots and sound bites that sweep over most people like leaves blowing in the wind. They scarcely have time in their busy lives to reflect on one story, much less to step back and look for themes that connect stories. Blogging about the news of the day caused me to dig deeper into stories and helped me recognize patterns and root causes. I finally realized that all those “news” fragments blowing around were but a prelude to a massive approaching storm. That’s the real news. That’s the force generating many of the events we are experiencing. That force is unconstrained growth and consumption, leaving in its wake the exhaustion of all the resources crucial to our existence and TEOTWAWKI. That’s the big news that doesn’t get reported by the mainstream media.

Years ago, I lived in the Midwest. I remember one day I looked across the plains and saw a distant storm rolling over farmland and villages. I was perpendicular to it, so my vision encompassed the past, the present, and the future of that storm. Central to my view were dark clouds spewing rain, hail, lightning, and a tornado spout.  That was the present. To my right, I could see the storm clouds clearing, the sun shining through, and flattened fields and damaged structures. That was the past. And to my left, it was still sunny, but I could see the first winds whipping up dust as the storm approached. That was the future.

Of course, as Einstein taught us, everything’s relative to your point of view. From the perspective of anyone in front of the approaching storm, their present, the future was uncertain. Were those dark clouds forming into a storm? Would the clouds pass over them or miss them? If there was a storm, would it be powerful enough to cause them harm? From my perspective, my present, one glance told me the answers to those questions. The future of anyone in front of that storm was imperiled. I hoped they were taking every precaution.

Now, I’m trying to gain a perspective that will allow me to understand the events swirling around me. Like a storm chaser on the Great Plains, I’m gathering information, looking at things from different points of view, trying to distinguish between what’s trivial and what’s important, what’s a symptom and what’s the cause. I’m trying to see through all the bits and pieces of opinion and news and data to discern the future, because it’s my future and that of my family. It’s your future, too, so I’m going to use truthalyzer.com to share with you anything important that I discover. And I encourage you to share with me.

How and why is the world changing?

Let me trade the storm metaphor for another that should be familiar to you if you’ve ever been in a biology lab. Remember that classic experiment with bacteria in a petri dish?  The bacteria mindlessly consume nutrients and multiply, until they run out of food or run out of space, or both. Then they die. From the perspective of a human observer, it is obvious from the beginning that the bacteria are doomed. Genetic programming compels the bacteria to consume and multipy and consume without any knowledge or consideration of resource limits. When they hit the wall of the petri dish, having exhausted every available resource, it’s the end of their world. No big deal for us. We just toss the petri dish into the hazardous waste can and go on with our lives.

But suppose we’re the bacteria and Earth is the petri dish. Human genetic programming compels our species to multiply and consume as if there were no limits to growth. Of course, some of us are smarter than the average bacteria, and we know that humanity cannot continue its pace of growth forever. But as a species, and as a civilization, we are not able to confront that truth. Our future is no less predictable than the bacteria’s. We are fast approaching peak oil, peak natural gas, peak minerals, peak fresh water, peak fertile land, peak food, peak human habitat . . . and so on. As we pass over the peaks and descend, the fatal flaw in our civilization will be clear to even the most myopic among us. Unconstrained growth leads inevitably to collapse and die-off, whether it takes place in a petri dish or on a planet. We are multiplying beyond the carrying capacity of the Earth, exhausting the resources necessary to continue the lifestyle to which we have become accustomed. There will still be resources, mind you, but they will be much more difficult to obtain and they will never again be available at a cost and in quantities that will support civilization as we know it today. Competition for scarce resources will be fierce. Our civilization will fracture. Vast areas of the planet will go dark. Many of us will not survive. Those who do will adjust their lifestyles.

How long do we have?

When I was a kid, there were about 2.5 billion people on Earth. In just my lifetime, the population has grown to 6.7 billion and brought with it congestion, waste, pollution, climate change, soil degradation, famine, disease, acidic and oxygen-starved oceans, war, natural resource depletion, and the greatest mass extinction of species in 65 million years, all of which portend TEOTWAWKI. We are bumping up against the wall of the petri dish as I blog these words. (Click here for evidence of TEOTWAWKI.)

Of late, our economic downturn has accomplished something that many of us who write about threats to civilization and affronts to nature have not been able to do. It has reduced growth and consumption of resources. Will mankind take this opportunity to rethink the endless growth assumption on which our civilization is based, to take measures to conserve remaining resources and restore the environment? Not likely. Our leaders are frantically trying to restart the economic engine and shift back into the growth mode before a depression overtakes us. I don’t like our chances either way, because either a depression or another few years of growth and consumption could tip us into TEOTWAWKI. (Click here for scenarios of TEOTWAWKI.)

About me

I’m Gib. Having read the preceding, you might assume I’m a doomer. You’d be wrong. Life is going to get very hard for us in the years to come, but I think the U.S. will fare better than most other countries. Of course, “better” is a relative term.

I’m not a survivalist. I am throwing my lot in with the other people in my town rather than bugging out to the wilderness. I’m well educated, well traveled, and well worn. I hope I am well prepared, but I’m not sure anyone can truly prepare for what’s coming. So in addition to the sense of perspective mentioned above, I’ll try to keep a sense of humor.

Note: This website is non-profit. Actually, it’s less than non-profit — a financial disaster-in-the-making in which my children are unwittingly paying for my excesses out of their inheritance, which if you think about it is a microcosm of the larger society.